Industry Report
Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises
Table of Contents
- 1 Introduction
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2 Series of Chinese Macro Surprises
- 2.1 Definition
- 2.2 The Bloomberg Survey
- 2.3 Properties of the Surprise Series
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3 High-Frequency Effects
- 3.1 Empirical Specification
- 3.2 Response of Asia-Pacific Stock Markets
- 3.3 Sovereign Yields
- 3.4 Commodity Prices
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4 Close-to-Open Effects
- 4.1 Empirical Specification
- 4.2 International Stock Returns
- 4.3 Heterogeneous Effects of Chinese Macro Surprises
- 4.4 Comovement and Amplification of Asset Prices Response
- 4.5 The VIX Index
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5 Understanding the Effects
- 5.1 Risk Premium Channel
- 5.2 Improved Growth Prospectives
- 5.3 Chinese Specific or Global Shocks?
- 5.4 The Effects on the Global Financial Cycle
- 6 Conclusions
- References
- A Data Appendix
- A China in the Global Economic
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B Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises
- B.1 Median vs. Mean-Based Surprises and Weekend Releases
- B.2 Release of Information in Other Economies
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C Data
- C.1 Economic-Release Calendars Reviewed
- C.2 Intraday Benchmarks: Equities, Bonds, and Commodities
- C.3 Panel of Economies for Close-to-Open Estimation
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D Identification Strategy and Event Windows
- D.1 Stock Markets and Sovereign Yields
- D.2 Commodities: Close vs. +30 Minutes Post
- D.3 VIX: Overnight Window, Close vs. Next-Day Open
- D.4 Global Equity Markets: Close-to-Open Window
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E Additional High-Frequency Results
- E.1 Stock Returns in Asia-Pacific Region
- E.2 US Yield - All Surprises
- E.3 Sovereign Yields - Common Sample
- E.4 Commodity Prices
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F Additional Close-to-Open Results
- F.1 Exogeneity and Timing Validation Tests
- F.2 Yield Responses in Other Economies
- F.3 Specification with Fixed-Effects
- F.4 Correlation between Country Characteristics
- F.5 Stock Returns and Simultaneous Announcements
- F.6 Asymmetric Responses to the Sign and Magnitude of Surprises
- F.7 Time Dependence in the Effect of Chinese Surprises
- G Daily Responses to Chinese IP Surprises
Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises
We study how Chinese macroeconomic surprises affect global financial markets. Exploiting forecast errors around key data releases and a 60-minute window around the release, we show that positive industrial production (IP) surprises lead to immediate increases in Chinese and Asia-Pacific stock returns, global long-term yields, and commodity prices highly demanded by China. A complementary identification strategy, which builds on different time zones, confirms positive spillovers to international equity markets, with stronger effects in countries more exposed to Chinese trade. Our results highlight the role of both Hedging Premia and Growth Expectations in driving asset price comovement. The findings highlight China’s growing influence in global markets and position it as a driver of the Global Financial Cycle.